> ## Documentation Index
> Fetch the complete documentation index at: https://docs.qauntom.com/llms.txt
> Use this file to discover all available pages before exploring further.

# Expected Value (EV)

> Understanding expected value and why it matters for sports betting

# Expected Value (EV)

Expected value is the mathematical foundation behind every signal in Qauntom. It tells you whether a bet is profitable in the long run.

## The formula

```
EV = (Probability of Winning x Payout) - (Probability of Losing x Stake)
```

If EV is positive, the bet is expected to make money over many repetitions. If negative, you're expected to lose.

## How Qauntom calculates EV

1. **Market probability** is derived from sportsbook odds across multiple books
2. **PrizePicks implied probability** is derived from their payout structure
3. **EV %** = the difference between what the market says and what PrizePicks is offering

### Example

A sportsbook consensus gives a player a 60% chance to go Over 24.5 points. PrizePicks prices this as if it were a 50/50 coin flip (because all Flex legs pay the same). That gap — 60% vs. 50% — is your edge.

## Why EV matters

Individual bets are unpredictable. A 60% play still loses 40% of the time. But over hundreds of plays, consistently taking +EV spots means you come out ahead. Qauntom finds those spots so you don't have to.

<Warning>
  Positive EV does not guarantee a win on any single bet. It guarantees profitability over a large sample size. Bankroll management is essential.
</Warning>