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Expected Value (EV)

Expected value is the mathematical foundation behind every signal in Qauntom. It tells you whether a bet is profitable in the long run.

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The formula

EV = (Probability of Winning x Payout) - (Probability of Losing x Stake)
If EV is positive, the bet is expected to make money over many repetitions. If negative, you’re expected to lose.

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How Qauntom calculates EV

  1. Market probability is derived from sportsbook odds across multiple books
  2. PrizePicks implied probability is derived from their payout structure
  3. EV % = the difference between what the market says and what PrizePicks is offering

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Example

A sportsbook consensus gives a player a 60% chance to go Over 24.5 points. PrizePicks prices this as if it were a 50/50 coin flip (because all Flex legs pay the same). That gap — 60% vs. 50% — is your edge.

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Why EV matters

Individual bets are unpredictable. A 60% play still loses 40% of the time. But over hundreds of plays, consistently taking +EV spots means you come out ahead. Qauntom finds those spots so you don’t have to.
Positive EV does not guarantee a win on any single bet. It guarantees profitability over a large sample size. Bankroll management is essential.